Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.049190 0.055917 0.063436 0.072503 0.083191 0.095451 0.110668
2025-12-21 0.036696 0.044383 0.053655 0.065783 0.081402 0.101081 0.128138
2025-12-28 0.030442 0.038893 0.049807 0.065192 0.086737 0.116490 0.161868
2026-01-04 0.026163 0.035147 0.047509 0.066220 0.094664 0.137750 0.210994
2026-01-11 0.022444 0.031535 0.044782 0.066202 0.101407 0.159796 0.270646
2026-01-18 0.019426 0.028434 0.042270 0.066075 0.108263 0.184830 0.347751
2026-01-25 0.016612 0.025191 0.038992 0.064092 0.111745 0.205884 0.429813
2026-02-01 0.014118 0.022074 0.035397 0.060849 0.112279 0.222210 0.513379
2026-02-08 0.012562 0.020267 0.033719 0.060788 0.119282 0.255703 0.664575
2026-02-15 0.011283 0.018745 0.032294 0.060946 0.127065 0.295410 0.869841
2026-02-22 0.010290 0.017585 0.031346 0.061914 0.137293 0.347548 1.173698
2026-03-01 0.009419 0.016525 0.030415 0.062743 0.147770 0.407576 1.591118
2026-03-08 0.008435 0.015135 0.028645 0.061410 0.152715 0.456205 2.051669
2026-03-15 0.007318 0.013343 0.025761 0.056781 0.146959 0.466211 2.343138
2026-03-22 0.006731 0.012542 0.024886 0.057016 0.156161 0.540645 3.217898
2026-03-29 0.006300 0.012006 0.024514 0.058514 0.170398 0.650528 4.732530
2026-04-05 0.005853 0.011377 0.023829 0.059022 0.181859 0.761965 6.793999
2026-04-12 0.005446 0.010783 0.023132 0.059349 0.193180 0.888579 9.850665
2026-04-19 0.004996 0.010038 0.021952 0.057960 0.197410 0.983098 13.275769
2026-04-26 0.004540 0.009228 0.020492 0.055363 0.195672 1.041307 16.737941
2026-05-03 0.004258 0.008791 0.019927 0.055538 0.206507 1.206675 25.192795
2026-05-10 0.004011 0.008406 0.019440 0.055872 0.218615 1.407414 39.403855
2026-05-17 0.003814 0.008118 0.019169 0.056904 0.235184 1.685946 67.422935